Oreninc Index Falls, Stays Respectable

The Oreninc Index fell slightly for the week ending January 22, 2015. Total dollars announced dropped to $76m, a two-week low. Two brokered and bought financings were announced for $70m, both two-week lows. 

Deals slowed a bit, with Goldcorp’s (TSX:G) purchase of Probe Mines Ltd. (TSX-V:PRB) and their Ontario Borden Gold project leading the charge. The all-stock deal is worth CDN$526m. Gold prices for the week were strong, ending above $1,300 an ounce for the first time since August. Oil prices increased briefly on Thursday with news of the death of Saudi Arabian King Abdullah, though they will probably come back down with the expectation that his successor will not change the country’s crude production policy.

Though sagging and not where they need to be, it’s nice to see two alright weeks strung together after two of the worst weeks in years. 

Oreninc Index Rebounds

The Oreninc Index rebounded for the week ending January 15, 2015. Total dollars announced exploded to $100.8m, a five-week high. Two brokered and bought financings were announced for $93.3m, both 13-week highs.

Deals seemed to pick up slightly, with Coeur Mining’s (NYSE:CDE) purchase of Goldcorp’s (NYSE:GG) Wharf Mine for $105m leading the charge. Commodity prices were all over the place for the week, with gold jumping to $1,264.70 an ounce, its highest level since October, on news out of Switzerland that they would drop efforts to keep the Franc from appreciating. Copper had a horrific week, dropping to levels not seen since mid-2009.

While not much excitement should be gleaned from just one positive week, it’s nice to see some strong numbers that will hopefully spark some confidence in such a depressed market.

Oreninc Index Hits New Basement

The Oreninc Index crashed to a new low for the week ending January 8, 2015. Total dollars crashed to $2.2m, its lowest level in over a year. No brokered or bought financings were announced, the second and third occurrences in as many weeks respectively. Total financings announced dropped to 10, the lowest level in one year.

Deals for the week were light--as expected, considering the proximity to the start of the year. The largest deal was Cliffs Natural Resources’ (NYSE:CLF) sale of their West Virginian Logan County Coal assets to Coronado Coal’s subsidiary, Coronado Coal II, for $174m. Both the company and its subsidiary are private. Gold had a solid week, ending above $1,210, while oil continued its fall into 2015, ending the week below $50 a barrel for the first time since May 2009. 

It’s easy to panic based on the extreme low the Index hit for the week, but given the historic performance of the first week in the New Year, this is more a reflection of the decreased state of the market over the past couple months than a sudden crash that will remain. Expect the Index to moderately improve in the coming weeks, likely back to the numbers we were seeing before the holidays. 

Oreninc Index Stays Solid

The Oreninc Index stayed solid for the week ending December 18, 2014. The main takeaway from this week was the increase in deals announced to 48, a 25-week high. Total dollars dropped to $99m, a two-week low. Three brokered deals were announced for $15.7m, a two-week low; one bought deal was announced for $15m, a four-week high.

Deals for the week were moderate, with the biggest one of note being Coeur Mining’s (NYSE:CDE) purchase of Paramount Gold and Silver Corp. (TSX:PZG), and with it their Sleeper Gold project and other Nevada assets, in an all-stock deal worth $146m. Gold was down for the week, falling over $30 and ending below $1,200. Iron ore continued its slide to a five-and-a-half-year low on news of China’s lowest imports in 16 years. Oil did somewhat stop its treacherous slide, though still ended lower than it did the week before.

While this has truly been a rough year, it’s nice to end with a December that had some decent Index performances, even if a year ago they wouldn’t have been considered decent.

Oreninc Index Doubles

The Oreninc Index doubled for the week ending December 11, 2014. Total dollars announced jumped to $157.7m, an eight-week high. Five brokered deals were announced for $34.1m, a four-week high; three bought-deals were announced for $9.7m, a three-week high.

Deal-making continued to stay somewhat active with Vale’s (NYSE:VALE) sale of a 14% stake in its Moatize coal project in Mozambique to the Japanese trading company Mitsui & Company (TYO: 8031), who led the charge. The deal for the stake in the property is worth $638m (USD), with an additional $313m (USD) being paid by Matsui & Co. for a 35% stake in the related Nacala Logistics Corridor. Commodity prices for the week were highlighted by gold’s rise to above $1,220 an ounce, ending the week there. 

It’s hard to find positives in this market, but the fact that deals are getting done and there seems to be some amount of appetite for investment as the year comes to a close is a positive. As we’ve said in weeks past, it would not be surprising to see an influx of flow-through financings in the weeks leading up to the end of the year, but it would also not be surprising if that didn’t happen given the state of the financing market. We’ll see how next week--the last Index reading of the year--will fare. No breaths should be held over the next few weeks.

Oreninc Index Settles into Slump

The Oreninc Index fell further for the week ending December 4, 2014. Total dollars fell to $38.6m, a four-week low. Two brokered deals were announced for $1.9m, also a four-week low; no bought deals were announced for the third time in five weeks. 

Deal-making picked up this week, led by Aston Bay Holdings Ltd.’s (TSX-V:BAY) announcement of the signing of their Definitive Earn-In Agreement with a wholly owned subsidiary of Antofagasta plc (LON:ANTO). 

Metals prices rallied with gold hitting a five-week high on Monday the 1st (though coming back down to around $1,200 to end the week) and iron ore moving up to its highest level since mid-November, which while not huge news, is certainly better than the fall it had in recent weeks.

As the holidays approach, it seems that bankers and executives are gearing up to be out of the office and investor's checkbooks may be tapped. There is always next year....

Oreninc Index Declines

The Oreninc Index declined for the week ending November 27, 2014. Total dollars fell to $101.4m, a three-week low. One brokered deal was announced for $2m, a three-week low; and no bought deals were announced for the second time in four weeks.

The US Thanksgiving did not close Canadian markets, but it did seem to impact dealflow as no major deals were announced. Oil had a truly horrific week, falling to $70 a barrel on news that OPEC does not intend to alter crude production. Iron ore also had another miserable week, falling below $70 a ton for the first time since 2009. In better news, gold seems to have leveled off and, at least momentarily, stymied the fall that it has experienced since summer. As we head into the holiday season, it will be interesting to see if companies take advantage of raising last minute flow-through, as has happened in previous years, or if they close the doors and bunker down for a very cold winter.

Oreninc Index Stumbles

The Oreninc Index stumbled for the week ending November 20, 2014. Total dollars fell to $60.3m, a two-week low. One bought deal was announced for $15.1m and was also the only brokered deal, two-week lows for both categories.

By far the biggest deal of the week was Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd.’s (TSX:OR) acquisition of Virginia Mines Inc. (TSX:VGQ) for $479m. The all-stock deal combines two companies that are focused on gold royalties in Quebec. Metal prices for the week were positive, with gold having a fantastic week, almost reaching $1,200/oz. Nickel also had a price increase, reaching its highest this month on news the Indonesian government would continue their ban on unprocessed ore. Nothing changed for iron ore, as the metal continued its horrific slide downwards for 2014.

While not as bad as many weeks this autumn, one hopes something would have been built off of last week’s increased performance. Due to the US Thanksgiving Holiday this Thursday, the release of the November 27th Index will be delayed until Tuesday, December 2nd.

Oreninc Index Rebounds to Modest Levels

The Oreninc Index rebounded to modest levels for the week ending November 13, 2014. Total dollars jumped to $101.6m, a four-week high. Five brokered deals were announced for $73m, a four-week high; two brokered deals were announced for $70m, also a four-week high.

There were a couple of smaller deals for the week, with the Scorpio Mining (TSX:SPM) and U.S. Silver & Gold (TSX:USA) merger being the most significant transaction. The company will retain Scorpio Mining as their name. Commodity prices for the week were mostly flat. 

After a couple weeks of truly awful performance, this week’s financing activity is a welcome reprieve. Still, it’s hard to get too excited when the best week in a while is still below our threshold for a healthy financing market.

Oreninc Index Crashes to Lowest Level Since January

The Oreninc Index crashed to its lowest level since January for the week ending November 6, 2014. Total dollars announced fell to $11m, a YTD low. One brokered deal was announced for $0.7m, a 12-week low; no bought deals were announced for the second straight week. 

Deals for the week were a bit heavier, the largest being Antofagasta plc’s agreement to buy Duluth Metals Ltd. for C$96m, and with it the remaining 60% stake in the Twin Metals copper and nickel project in the United States. Metal prices for the week were gruesome, with iron ore falling to a 64-month low and gold falling to a four-and-a-half-year low.

There are not many ways to spin a week like this in a positive way, other than to say it can’t get that much worse.